Turkey vs Russia: Under the threat of export, energy, investment, tourism (Ankara counting huge losses, and Moscow is looking for alternative markets)

The incident with the Russian Su-24 on the Syrian-Turkish border turned a new round of tensions between Moscow and Ankara, and a new threat to bilateral relations. But the volume of Russian-Turkish trade turnover exceeds $ 31 billion. Russia ranked second (after Germany) among the foreign trade partners of Turkey, Ankara, in turn - in the top ten most important allies for Moscow.

The majority of Russian exports to Turkey - energy (about 70 percent), the rest - machinery, equipment, chemical industry. But the most pressing question hanging over the “Turkish Stream”. Its future rests on the signing of an intergovernmental agreement, which all could not conclude because Turkey did not have a permanent cabinet. Now it is a big question, though the head of the Energy Ministry of Turkey said he was not worried about the energy relations between the two countries.

In addition, Ankara - the second largest buyer of Russian raw materials after EU countries. In 2014 it acquired more than 27 billion cubic meters of fuel. After the last worsening President Erdogan said that Turkey could replace Russian supplies. “Gazprom” in this case will lose billions of dollars. But experts soothe: nursing Turkey hit hurt, but not deadly, it will be worse only to itself. After all, the Russian deliveries - more than 50 percent for Turkey. So there is still a big question - whose it is an instrument of pressure and energy.

Another project in this field - a nuclear power plant in southern Turkey worth $ 20 billion. If construction goes wrong, “Rosatom” lose already invested $ 3 billion. But Ankara is also a loss: less jobs and tax revenues.

And then there is the food. Ankara has increased this year, exports to Russia of vegetables and fruits. The volume in January-May - over 560 thousand tons. In addition, the country offers meat, dairy products, fish and eggs in exchange for Russian grain. Crimea has established supply food directly from that country.

Against the backdrop of worsening political relations damage to feel and investment cooperation. In 2013, the year of Russia in Turkey has received an investment of over 950 million dollars, and from Turkey to Russia took a little more than 520 million. Here are a few bargains - buy Russian “Sberbank” Denizbank, the acquisition of Lukoil gas stations “Akpet” buy “Inter RAO UES” power grid assets of Turkey.

And, of course, tourism. Turkey has long kept the first place in the number of adopted Russian travelers. In the past year there has been, according to various estimates, from 3.5 to 4.5 million of our citizens. This country had given way to Egypt, but the tragedy of the Sinai returned to rest in Antalya - rushed to the main stream of those who vacation was in jeopardy.

Experts have calculated that if the country will lose at least a quarter of Russians, and such a forecast made at the beginning of the year due to the devaluation of the ruble, the state would lose $ 4.5 billion. Got something to ponder.

25 November 2015

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