Business will ask the state to $ 90 billion in the case of sectoral sanctions

Russian Economic Growth could accelerate in the third quarter of this year, however, likely that the new sanctions would deprive Russia of this possibility, experts predict “RenCap”-NES. To maintain the stability of the business, the government will have to allocate its support to $ 90 billion in the next year and a half.

“Renaissance Capital” and NES revised its forecast for GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014 from 1.5% to 2% compared to the same period in 2013. Analysts clarify that the forecast is based on data collected before the crash Boeing 777 and information on possible new sanctions.

The authors forecast recognize that laid him in improving relations between Russia and the West that began before the fall of the Malaysian Boeing. After the crash the relationship between the two countries deteriorated again recognized analysts. Another prerequisite was the expectation that companies in many industries have already exhausted their reserves and they have to re-enter the market with purchases.

Support domestic demand is also continued indexation of salaries to state. In addition, supporting factor would weak ruble.

If we consider only those factors that Russia could enter the annual GDP growth rate of 1.6%, analysts say. But growth for the year could be at the level of 1%, if September will be introduced sectoral sanctions, according to a forecast “RenCap” NES.

New EU sanctions and the U.S. really can affect the growth of the Russian economy, agree to the Center for Development Economics. According to the Bank of Russia, Russian borrowers must pay to obtain external loans (body principal and interest) $ 99.4 billion in the second half of 2014 and $ 112.3 billion in 2015. If Western sanctions will address the ban on new borrowings (loans and placement of new bond issues) for the Russian state, then find money for the loans have elsewhere.

HSE economists predict that the end of 2014 under the debt payments will need to raise about $ 43 billion (including state-owned banks - about 19 billion), and in 2015 - about 48 billion, of which the state-owned banks have about 21 billion “at full the absence of external financing (ie, in an emergency situation) the State in 2014-2015 in one form or another will have to provide monetary support to the public sector in the amount of $ 40 billion, if the sanctions affect only state-owned banks, to about $ 90 billion, if the ban on refinancing in the U.S. and European banks will apply to all Russian state, “- according to the Center for Development.

Maybe the situation will worsen possible benefit Russia in the Yukos case in the amount of $ 50 billion, as well as a possible ban on the import into Russia from Europe (including Ukraine) dual-purpose products.

29 July 2014

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