The crisis at Russian oil will start at $ 15 per barrel: the export duty and mineral extraction tax will be reset, but the state “nefterazvёrstkoy” will withdraw income

Since the beginning of 2016, oil prices continued to fall. January 12 the price of Brent fell below $ 31 a barrel and came close to $ 30. UBS analysts expect that this price will last throughout the first half of the year, analysts of the British Standard Chartered Bank believes that prices may fall to $ 10 a barrel.

The Russian Energy Ministry is preparing to $ 30 per barrel. In December, the agency asked the major oil companies to carry out stress tests at a price of $ 30 per barrel. A ministry spokesman told RBC that this week will set the date of the meeting of the heads of oil companies with Minister Alexander Novak, which will summarize the work in 2015 and discussed plans for 2016. The results of stress tests of the oil industry is recommended to prepare for this meeting. Ministry of Energy and representatives of the companies did not disclose the results of stress tests, but from the statements of the major oil companies and analysts’ estimates shows that the level of $ 30 a barrel they consider non-critical and willing to stand and lower prices.

Break-even point

According to the press secretary of “Rosneft” Mikhail Leontiev, the company has a stress scenario, calculated on the price of $ 30 per barrel. At that price, the company will continue to implement even the offshore projects, according to Leontiev, but the details of the script, he refused to disclose. Representatives of Lukoil, “Gazprom Neft”, “Surgutneftegaz” and other major oil companies declined to comment on the results of its stress those ists. A source in the “Rosneft” RBC said that “the most effective Russian companies,” there is no need to change the investment and operational plans at the price of a barrel of Brent $ 25 and above.

President of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin said in autumn 2015 that the cost of oil, the company is about $ 4 (excluding transport costs and taxes), so it is ready to “continue the struggle for market share.”

LUKOIL in the stress scenarios at a price of $ 30 per barrel lays decline in investment by 20%, said a source in the RBC companies (LUKoil representative of this information does not comment). LUKOIL President Vagit Alekperov in the September interview with “Vedomosti” said that “the cut-off point” for the company - $ 24 per barrel. The materials Lukoil said that devaluation of the ruble in the first nine months decreased unit costs at LUKOIL production in Russia by 35%, to $ 3.68 per barrel (excluding taxes and transportation costs). On New Year’s eve to journalists Alekperov reminded that the company was able to survive and pay the salaries of employees and with oil prices $ 9-12 per barrel. But if oil quotes today will drop to that level, it would lead to “zero investment” and the reduction of oil production, he warned.

13 January 2016

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