Master class from “Gazprom”: how to save $ 7 billion and kill Ukraine’s GTS

The refusal of “Gazprom” on the Ukrainian transit can make unprofitable gas transportation system of the country and even cause blackouts in the central and eastern regions of the Square.

In the framework completed last weekend of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the head of “Gazprom” Alexei Miller made a loud statement about the benefits of the planned launch of “Nord Stream - 2″. According to a top manager, the “path” of pumping of blue fuel will be much more economical use of the gas transportation system of Ukraine.

For pumping thousands of cubic meters per 100 kilometers of “Gazprom” to pay $ 2.5 Kiev, and the same amount would cost to SP-2 at $ 2.1. The second “stream” in “Gazprom” plans to launch just in time for the end of the contract with Ukraine, ie in 2020. At the same time it will be significantly reduced pumping through Square - 64 billion cubic meters. m (data “Ukrtransgaz” in 2015) up to 10-15 billion cubic meters. per year.

Life has decided to calculate how much a year can save “Gazprom”, moving much of the gas from the Ukrainian pipes. To determine the spending of state monopoly on the transportation of natural gas through the territory of a neighboring country, we have collected a number of statistical data. First of all, the length of gas pipelines, the indicative annual volumes, rates and so on. D.

How much is a “voucher” to Ukraine for Russian gas

Way of Russian gas to Europe passes by several Ukrainian pipelines. Including the three largest:

The first of these, “The Union”, has a length of 2750 km, 1568 km of them - through the territory of Ukraine.
The second - “Brotherhood” - is the “long”. Way of Urengoi in Pomary and thence to Uzhgorod is 4451 km.
The length of the third worthy of a separate mention gas pipelines - Trans-Balkan - is “only” 950 km. It Shebelinka route - Kryvyi Rih - Izmail II uses “Gazprom” to export natural gas to Turkey and Romania.

In sum, our gas overcomes in Ukraine 3678 km before getting into Europe.

After starting the “Nord Stream - 2″ will take to the Ukrainian gas pipelines at least 49 billion cubic meters. The total capacity of Gazprom’s long-term project is about 55 billion cubic meters. per year.

Ukraine, of course, care of Russian gas from the yellow-blue pipes are not happy. Because of the desire to “earn while you can,” Kiev earlier this year unilaterally decided to increase the rate to $ 2.5 for pumping thousands of cubic meters per 100 km to $ 4.5.

“Gazprom”, which is not surprising, with the increase did not agree. The Russian side insisted on the fact that the cost of transit can only be changed after the revision of the long-term contract. Later, the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy Vladimir Demchishin promised that the terms of cooperation with “Gazprom” will remain the same as long as the parties do not resolve the issue in accordance with all legal standards. Even in the Stockholm arbitration.

Since the 2019 contract “Gazprom” with “Ukrtransgaz” will expire, in case of failure with the launch of SP-2 Russian side will have to go towards the Ukrainians and, as an option, to supply gas to the new rate of $ 4.5, which we take to our calculation . His version of the state-owned corporation is not voiced.

So what is the cost of delivery of one thousand cubic meters of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine? Multiply voiced by volume of natural gas by 4.5 (that is how much the dollar is worth 100 kilometers for our gas) and 3678 km (36.78 km of hundreds - the total length of Ukrainian pipes) and we see that “Gazprom” pays $ 165.5.

It remains to multiply the pumpable volume (49 billion cubic meters) to the cost of pumping thousands of cubic meters. m. It turns out that in the year, “Gazprom” will have to pay, “Ukrtransgaz” of about $ 8.1 billion. According to the head of the State Corporation Alexey Miller, transport at least 30 billion cubic meters. m through Ukraine will bring the company’s expenses “in the amount of 25 to 43 billion dollars over 25 years.” That is $ 1.8 billion annually.

What will happen to our gas without Ukraine

If we abandon the route through Ukraine, on the contrary, you can save $ 45-78 billion if we talk about more tangible prospect of a quarter of a century -. The $ 3.1 billion a year. It is at the rate of $ 2.5. Why did it happen? The thing is, “Nord Stream - 2″.

To calculate the cost of transportation for the SP-2, we used already voiced above scheme. The length of the future gas pipeline - 1224 km (12.24 km hundreds), reports on its website “Gazprom”. Tariff Miller statement below Ukrainian - $ 2.1.

That is, for the transportation of thousands of cubic meters. meters of gas from Russia to Germany, where the pipe emerges from the sea to dry land, our corporation will pay $ 25.7. If all the 49 billion cubic meters. m (or 49 million thousand. cu. m) will be able to refocus from the Ukraine to the north direction, the volume of these monopolies will pay $ 1.3 billion per year.

Taking into account the annual payments “Ukrtransgaz” in the amount of $ 8.1 billion difference between the cost of these two directions is obtained impressive -. $ 6.8 billion It can be considered a potential annual savings of “Gazprom” in case of failure of transit through Ukraine.

However, our bonuses do not stop there. As owner of 51% shares of SP-2 “Gazprom” plans to get the project a dividend of $ 7 billion disappear as the current service costs of gas pumping system in Ukraine -. Plans to dismantle the company nearly 4 thousand km of trunk pipelines..

What will happen to Ukraine without our gas

Publicly, “Gazprom” does not disclose annual cost of transit through Ukraine at the current rate. But according to calculations Lajfa - is $ 4.5 billion per year. According to the most pessimistic for the alignment of Kiev. For comparison, all of the planned revenues of the state budget of Ukraine for the current year will amount to $ 24.8 billion. That is a profit from transit now brings 18% of revenues to the state budget.
“If Russia will reduce pumping through the gas transportation system of Ukraine for at least 5 billion cubic meters. M, ie, less than 60 billion cubic meters. M per year, it can make it unprofitable operation. In addition, there is a risk off the gas of many central and eastern regions of the country ”

- Valentin Zemlyansky, the director of energy programs of the Center for World Economy and International Relations, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

In principle, the reduction of pumping through Ukraine can be achieved without the launch of new joint venture thread. But for that “Gazprom” needs to convince the European Commission to exclude overland continuation of the “Flow” - the OPAL pipeline - from the Third Energy Package. By its terms, if the gas pipeline and the gas in it owns one company in the pipe should be reserved for the second volume of the supplier, even if this is actually not.

In principle, the reduction of pumping through Ukraine can be achieved without the launch of new joint venture thread. But for that “Gazprom” needs to convince the European Commission to exclude overland continuation of the “Flow” - the OPAL pipeline - from the Third Energy Package. By its terms, if the gas pipeline and the gas in it owns one company in the pipe should be reserved for the second volume of the supplier, even if this is actually not.

Once again, the European Commission will consider Russia’s bid in July. By OPAL gas exported from the joint venture further into Europe. Because of the limitations he downloaded only 50%, and the joint venture is currently working on 84% of its capacity limit - it is about 46 billion cubic meters. per year. This was said by the end of May in the company Nord Stream, the project operator.

The total capacity of the joint venture to expand - 55 billion cubic meters. m. That is, if possible, fully loaded from “Gazprom” would have a real way to reduce pumping through Ukraine to 9 billion cubic meters. m per year is due to this pipe.

But the plans of the Russian gas giant may interfere with the European Commission, if it proves that the new line of “Nord Stream” fall within the scope of the notorious Third Energy Package. Now it goes fierce debate. The European Commission does not consider it a purely commercial project, stating that it will affect the pumping across Ukraine.

Germany also promised to continue to support the SP-2, unless its launch, again, will not affect the Ukrainian transit. Do not “burn out”? The rhetoric of the head of “Gazprom” Alexey Miller on the last SPIEF suggests otherwise.

Once again, the European Commission will consider Russia’s bid in July. By OPAL gas exported from the joint venture further into Europe. Because of the limitations he downloaded only 50%, and the joint venture is currently working on 84% of its capacity limit - it is about 46 billion cubic meters. per year. This was said by the end of May in the company Nord Stream, the project operator.

The total capacity of the joint venture to expand - 55 billion cubic meters. m. That is, if possible, fully loaded from “Gazprom” would have a real way to reduce pumping through Ukraine to 9 billion cubic meters. m per year is due to this pipe.

23 June 2016

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